New Seat Details - Hereford and South Herefordshire

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Hereford and South Herefordshire been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	31,376	54.5%
LAB	13,414	23.3%
MIN	5,557	9.7%
LIB	4,377	7.6%
Green	1,535	2.7%
UKIP	1,156	2.0%
OTH	153	0.3%
CON Majority	17,962	31.2%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Map

List of old seats forming part of Hereford and South Herefordshire

Old seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Herefordshire	Aylestone Hill	2,412	Hereford and South Herefordshire	944	444	148	40	41	0	254	0	1,871
Herefordshire	Belmont Rural	2,505	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,043	456	91	41	40	0	286	0	1,957
Herefordshire	Birch	2,370	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,081	278	48	24	30	0	197	0	1,658
Herefordshire	Bobblestock	2,278	Hereford and South Herefordshire	864	446	142	93	37	0	188	0	1,770
Herefordshire	Central	2,159	Hereford and South Herefordshire	782	470	189	32	45	0	217	0	1,735
Herefordshire	College	2,679	Hereford and South Herefordshire	967	559	155	37	43	0	233	0	1,994
Herefordshire	Dinedor Hill	2,602	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,174	376	73	33	35	0	211	0	1,902
Herefordshire	Eign Hill	2,574	Hereford and South Herefordshire	923	421	167	37	43	0	232	0	1,823
Herefordshire	Golden Valley North	2,386	Hereford and South Herefordshire	973	276	56	73	32	0	180	0	1,590
Herefordshire	Golden Valley South	2,546	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,154	268	61	24	83	0	106	0	1,696
Herefordshire	Greyfriars	2,482	Hereford and South Herefordshire	972	516	190	39	50	0	261	0	2,028
Herefordshire	Hinton and Hunderton	2,599	Hereford and South Herefordshire	866	712	174	45	123	0	261	0	2,181
Herefordshire	Holmer	1,316	Hereford and South Herefordshire	466	162	35	17	15	0	112	0	807
Herefordshire	Kerne Bridge	2,437	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,078	294	109	26	31	0	158	0	1,696
Herefordshire	Kings Acre	2,537	Hereford and South Herefordshire	883	472	184	40	36	0	219	0	1,834
Herefordshire	Llangarron	2,671	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,143	309	103	25	29	0	138	0	1,747
Herefordshire	Newton Farm	2,504	Hereford and South Herefordshire	907	790	172	47	47	0	299	0	2,262
Herefordshire	Penyard	2,631	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,168	260	49	23	28	0	156	0	1,684
Herefordshire	Red Hill	2,757	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,014	679	145	44	41	0	180	0	2,103
Herefordshire	Ross East	2,806	Hereford and South Herefordshire	957	423	145	89	40	0	188	0	1,842
Herefordshire	Ross North	2,541	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,070	385	171	32	34	0	100	0	1,792
Herefordshire	Ross West	2,535	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,083	414	165	34	38	0	103	0	1,837
Herefordshire	Saxon Gate	2,618	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,129	632	196	45	41	0	228	0	2,271
Herefordshire	Stoney Street	2,193	Hereford and South Herefordshire	835	311	48	27	87	0	207	0	1,515
Herefordshire	Tupsley	2,489	Hereford and South Herefordshire	864	364	119	33	36	0	226	0	1,642
Herefordshire	Whitecross	2,463	Hereford and South Herefordshire	829	454	179	95	41	0	200	0	1,798
Herefordshire	Widemarsh	1,781	Hereford and South Herefordshire	668	462	156	32	37	0	194	0	1,549
Herefordshire	Wormside	2,536	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,167	359	86	29	33	0	223	0	1,897
	Total	68,407		27,004	11,992	3,556	1,156	1,216	0	5,557	0	50,481

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hereford and South Herefordshire seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Herefordshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Herefordshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Herefordshire North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Herefordshire	Arrow	2,798	Ludlow and Leominster	1,513	308	186	0	77	0	0	45	2,129
Herefordshire	Backbury	2,242	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,085	317	193	0	72	0	0	38	1,705
Herefordshire	Bircher	2,916	Ludlow and Leominster	1,328	392	251	0	95	0	0	50	2,116
Herefordshire	Bishops Frome and Cradley	2,433	Malvern and Ledbury	1,214	231	149	0	167	0	0	23	1,784
Herefordshire	Bromyard Bringsty	2,548	Malvern and Ledbury	1,191	380	217	0	82	0	0	40	1,910
Herefordshire	Bromyard West	2,222	Malvern and Ledbury	1,069	431	209	0	72	0	0	35	1,816
Herefordshire	Castle	2,388	Ludlow and Leominster	1,170	287	184	0	71	0	0	41	1,753
Herefordshire	Credenhill	2,276	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,239	426	238	0	83	0	0	44	2,030
Herefordshire	Hagley	2,752	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,385	444	257	0	92	0	0	47	2,225
Herefordshire	Hampton	2,666	Malvern and Ledbury	1,391	299	182	0	72	0	0	36	1,980
Herefordshire	Holmer	1,283	Hereford and South Herefordshire	502	172	102	0	35	0	0	18	829
Herefordshire	Hope End	2,805	Malvern and Ledbury	1,426	306	201	0	80	0	0	38	2,051
Herefordshire	Kington	2,445	Ludlow and Leominster	979	345	508	0	79	0	0	21	1,932
Herefordshire	Ledbury North	2,436	Malvern and Ledbury	1,079	397	229	0	79	0	0	40	1,824
Herefordshire	Ledbury South	2,385	Malvern and Ledbury	1,079	362	342	0	73	0	0	34	1,890
Herefordshire	Ledbury West	2,479	Malvern and Ledbury	1,292	483	255	0	88	0	0	42	2,160
Herefordshire	Leominster East	2,544	Ludlow and Leominster	1,074	507	237	0	286	0	0	22	2,126
Herefordshire	Leominster North and Rural	2,832	Ludlow and Leominster	1,424	457	220	0	228	0	0	21	2,350
Herefordshire	Leominster South	2,465	Ludlow and Leominster	988	496	234	0	253	0	0	39	2,010
Herefordshire	Leominster West	1,997	Ludlow and Leominster	795	332	274	0	190	0	0	16	1,607
Herefordshire	Mortimer	2,542	Ludlow and Leominster	1,181	333	199	0	78	0	0	52	1,843
Herefordshire	Old Gore	2,424	Malvern and Ledbury	1,278	277	170	0	69	0	0	32	1,826
Herefordshire	Queenswood	2,556	Ludlow and Leominster	1,244	407	224	0	83	0	0	46	2,004
Herefordshire	Stoney Street	410	Hereford and South Herefordshire	161	63	31	0	37	0	0	6	298
Herefordshire	Sutton Walls	2,392	Ludlow and Leominster	1,238	379	202	0	76	0	0	39	1,934
Herefordshire	Three Crosses	2,658	Malvern and Ledbury	1,408	308	179	0	71	0	0	33	1,999
Herefordshire	Weobley	2,725	Ludlow and Leominster	1,361	356	201	0	81	0	0	42	2,041
	Total	64,619		31,094	9,495	5,874	0	2,769	0	0	940	50,172

The full details of these calculations are given on the Herefordshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Hereford and South Herefordshire
Herefordshire	Aylestone Hill	2,634	Hereford and South Herefordshire	944	444	148	40	41	0	254	0	1,871
Herefordshire	Backbury	2,302	Herefordshire North	1,085	317	193	0	72	0	0	38	1,705
Herefordshire	Belmont Rural	2,756	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,043	456	91	41	40	0	286	0	1,957
Herefordshire	Birch	2,335	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,081	278	48	24	30	0	197	0	1,658
Herefordshire	Bobblestock	2,493	Hereford and South Herefordshire	864	446	142	93	37	0	188	0	1,770
Herefordshire	Central	2,443	Hereford and South Herefordshire	782	470	189	32	45	0	217	0	1,735
Herefordshire	College	2,808	Hereford and South Herefordshire	967	559	155	37	43	0	233	0	1,994
Herefordshire	Credenhill	2,741	Herefordshire North	1,239	426	238	0	83	0	0	44	2,030
Herefordshire	Dinedor Hill	2,679	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,174	376	73	33	35	0	211	0	1,902
Herefordshire	Eign Hill	2,568	Hereford and South Herefordshire	923	421	167	37	43	0	232	0	1,823
Herefordshire	Golden Valley North	2,240	Hereford and South Herefordshire	973	276	56	73	32	0	180	0	1,590
Herefordshire	Golden Valley South	2,389	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,154	268	61	24	83	0	106	0	1,696
Herefordshire	Greyfriars	2,855	Hereford and South Herefordshire	972	516	190	39	50	0	261	0	2,028
Herefordshire	Hagley	3,005	Herefordshire North	1,385	444	257	0	92	0	0	47	2,225
Herefordshire	Hinton and Hunderton	3,071	Hereford and South Herefordshire	866	712	174	45	123	0	261	0	2,181
Herefordshire	Holmer	1,137	Hereford and South Herefordshire	466	162	35	17	15	0	112	0	807
Herefordshire	Holmer	1,120	Herefordshire North	502	172	102	0	35	0	0	18	829
Herefordshire	Kerne Bridge	2,387	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,078	294	109	26	31	0	158	0	1,696
Herefordshire	Kings Acre	2,580	Hereford and South Herefordshire	883	472	184	40	36	0	219	0	1,834
Herefordshire	Llangarron	2,461	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,143	309	103	25	29	0	138	0	1,747
Herefordshire	Newton Farm	3,185	Hereford and South Herefordshire	907	790	172	47	47	0	299	0	2,262
Herefordshire	Penyard	2,372	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,168	260	49	23	28	0	156	0	1,684
Herefordshire	Red Hill	2,962	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,014	679	145	44	41	0	180	0	2,103
Herefordshire	Ross East	2,593	Hereford and South Herefordshire	957	423	145	89	40	0	188	0	1,842
Herefordshire	Ross North	2,523	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,070	385	171	32	34	0	100	0	1,792
Herefordshire	Ross West	2,588	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,083	414	165	34	38	0	103	0	1,837
Herefordshire	Saxon Gate	3,199	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,129	632	196	45	41	0	228	0	2,271
Herefordshire	Stoney Street	2,132	Hereford and South Herefordshire	835	311	48	27	87	0	207	0	1,515
Herefordshire	Stoney Street	402	Herefordshire North	161	63	31	0	37	0	0	6	298
Herefordshire	Tupsley	2,313	Hereford and South Herefordshire	864	364	119	33	36	0	226	0	1,642
Herefordshire	Whitecross	2,531	Hereford and South Herefordshire	829	454	179	95	41	0	200	0	1,798
Herefordshire	Widemarsh	2,182	Hereford and South Herefordshire	668	462	156	32	37	0	194	0	1,549
Herefordshire	Wormside	2,672	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,167	359	86	29	33	0	223	0	1,897
	Total	80,658		31,376	13,414	4,377	1,156	1,535	0	5,557	153	57,568

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Hereford and South Herefordshire. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Jesse Norman (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	80,658
Turnout:	71.4%

Hereford and South Herefordshire: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Hereford and South Herefordshire: Overview

Introduction